NBA Draft Pick Range of 11 – 13 Almost Always has 1 All-Star

If your team has a draft pick in spots 11, 12 or 13 you might just have a star on your team. Almost every draft for the last decade has had at least one all-star in this range! This year Jett Howard, Dereck Lively II and Gradey Dick are the 11-13 picks.

Here’s a year by year breakdown. Look at this success rate!

2011 – 11. Klay Thompson
2014 – 13. Zach Lavine
2015 – 13. Devin Booker
2016 – 11. Domantas Sabonis
2017 – 13. Donovan Mitchell
2018 – 11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The last few drafts have much younger players that still have plenty of time to become stars. Tyrese Haliburton has already made an all-star team and no one would be surprised if Jalen Williams did after his impressive rookie season. From the 2019 draft, Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro are good players that have a chance in the right situation. I don’t know what happened in 2021!

2019 – 11. Cameron Johnson, 12. PJ Washington, 13. Tyler Herro

2020 – 11. Devin Vassell, 12. Tyrese Haliburton, 13. Kira Lewis Jr.

2021 – 😭

2022 – 11. Ousmane Dieng, 12. Jalen Williams, 13. Jalen Duren

The real question is why are the picks from 8-10 typically so much worse. There isn’t a clear answer. Is it because GM’s have pressure with a top 10 pick to pick the best consensus player available? Where at 11-13 there is much less pressure and teams can just take their guy. The best player in their opinion out of the remaining players in the draft? This reason makes some sense. What do you guys think?

So statistically speaking, one of Jett, Lively and Gradey will be an all-star!

Just look at these picks at 8 – 10 from 2014 – 2022:

Pick 8: Nik Stauskas, Stanley Johnson, Marquese Chriss, Frank Ntilikina, Collin Sexton, Jaxson Hayes, Obi Toppin, Franz Wagner, Dyson Daniels

Pick 9: Noah Vonleh, Frank Kaminsky, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Smith Jr., Kevin Knox II, Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija, Davion Mitchell, Jeremy Sochan

Pick 10: Elfrid Payton, Justice Winslow, Thon Maker, Zach Collins, Mikal Bridges, Cam Reddish, Jalen Smith, Ziaire Willams, Johnny Davis

The quality of players in that same time range at 11-13 have much more noticeable star power.